A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
