Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
